This paper studies the joint role of long-memory dynamics,rough-volatility behavior, and persistence-based forecasting features in equity volatility modeling. We combine semiparametric long-memory estimation, rough-volatility diagnostics, and structured forecasting regressions to examine whether persistence measures contain economically meaningful forecasting information beyond conventional volatility predictors. Using a panel of 115 S&P500 constituents from November 2001 through April 2026, we document that volatility proxies exhibit substantial long-memory behavior and locally rough dynamics. The cross-sectional mean Geweke-Porter-Hudak estimate of the memory parameter is $\hat{d} = 0.226$, while the corresponding local-Whittle estimate is $\hat{d} = 0.440$, with statistical significance observed across nearly the entire panel. Rolling estimates of persistence rise substantially during the global financial crisis and the COVID period and display a positive contemporaneous association with the VIX. We then examine whether persistence-related features improve out-of-sample volatility forecasts beyond standard HAR and HAR-X benchmarks. Incorporating cross-sectional persistence aggregates, sectoral persistence measures, and persistence-by-stress interaction terms produces moderate but statistically significant forecasting improvements, particularly at longer horizons and during stress regimes. Forecast gains are strongest during periods of elevated market volatility and in volatility-managed portfolio applications. The results suggest that persistence measures may serve as useful reduced-form indicators of the duration and propagation of uncertainty in financial markets, although the paper does not claim structural identification of the economic mechanisms generating persistence.

Neural network surrogate models have emerged as a promising approach to model solution fields for a wide variety of boundary value problems encountered in physical modeling. Stochastic problems represent an area of particularly high interest because of the potential to significantly reduce the repeated evaluation of expensive forward models via traditional numerical solvers when conducting parametric analysis. However, many studies found in the literature primarily focus on the ability of neural network surrogate models to represent deterministic samples or mean field solutions and largely overlook surrogate model performance at the tails of the distribution. The present study examines in detail the ability of neural network surrogate models to capture the full distribution of solution fields over the entire probability space, while emphasis is placed at the tails of the distribution. Serving as a canonical problem is the heat conduction equation with a highly stochastic source term, inducing extremely large variation in the thermal solution field. Comparisons are made between a classic feed-forward fully connected network and a Deep Operator Network architecture, using both data-driven and physics-informed loss functions. Results show that the worst-case prediction errors are an order of magnitude larger than the mean field error, highlighting the importance of the outlier samples. The large errors associated with extreme samples result from the networks having to extrapolate beyond the bounds of the training data. A method for identifying these samples is presented along with a discussion of potential approaches to account of their errors. Among the models considered, the fully connected neural network trained using a weak form residual loss performs best in handling these extrapolated inputs, achieving the highest prediction accuracy for the numerically produced datasets.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where the available context is incomplete or degraded. We argue that an LLM generating answers under incomplete context can be viewed as an implicit imputer, and evaluated against a criterion from the multiple imputation (MI) literature: uncertainty should scale with the amount of missing information. We assess this criterion on SQuAD, using a controlled framework in which context availability is varied across five levels. We evaluate two answer-level uncertainty measures that can be estimated from repeated sampling: sampling-based confidence (empirical mode frequency) and response entropy. Confidence fails to reflect increasing missingness: it remains high even as accuracy collapses. Entropy, by contrast, increases with context removal, consistent with the MI analogy, and explains substantially more variance in accuracy than confidence across all evidence levels (quadratic $R^2$ gap up to 0.057). We further introduce a black-box diagnostic $ρ_R(α)$ that estimates the proportion of baseline uncertainty resolved by context level $α$, requiring only repeated sampling with and without context. These results suggest that entropy is a more responsive black-box uncertainty measure than confidence under incomplete context.

Adapting large-scale foundation models to new domains with limited supervision remains a fundamental challenge due to latent distribution mismatch, unstable optimization dynamics, and miscalibrated uncertainty propagation. This paper introduces an uncertainty-aware probabilistic latent transport framework that formulates domain adaptation as a stochastic geometric alignment problem in representation space. A Bayesian transport operator is proposed to redistribute latent probability mass along Wasserstein-type geodesic trajectories, while a PAC-Bayesian regularization mechanism constrains posterior model complexity to mitigate catastrophic overfitting. The proposed formulation yields theoretical guarantees on convergence stability, loss landscape smoothness, and sample efficiency under distributional shift. Empirical analyses demonstrate substantial reduction in latent manifold discrepancy, accelerated transport energy decay, and improved covariance calibration compared with deterministic fine-tuning and adversarial domain adaptation baselines. Furthermore, bounded posterior uncertainty evolution indicates enhanced probabilistic reliability during cross-domain transfer. By establishing a principled connection between stochastic optimal transport geometry and statistical generalization theory, the proposed framework provides new insights into robust adaptation of modern foundation architectures operating in heterogeneous environments. These findings suggest that uncertainty-aware probabilistic alignment constitutes a promising paradigm for reliable transfer learning in next-generation deep representation systems.

We propose MedBayes-Lite, a lightweight Bayesian enhancement for transformer-based clinical language models designed to produce reliable, uncertainty-aware predictions. Although transformers show strong potential for clinical decision support, they remain prone to overconfidence, especially in ambiguous medical cases where calibrated uncertainty is critical. MedBayes-Lite embeds uncertainty quantification directly into existing transformer pipelines without any retraining or architectural rewiring, adding no new trainable layers and keeping parameter overhead under 3 percent. The framework integrates three components: (i) Bayesian Embedding Calibration using Monte Carlo dropout for epistemic uncertainty, (ii) Uncertainty-Weighted Attention that marginalizes over token reliability, and (iii) Confidence-Guided Decision Shaping inspired by clinical risk minimization. Across biomedical QA and clinical prediction benchmarks (MedQA, PubMedQA, MIMIC-III), MedBayes-Lite consistently improves calibration and trustworthiness, reducing overconfidence by 32 to 48 percent. In simulated clinical settings, it can prevent up to 41 percent of diagnostic errors by flagging uncertain predictions for human review. These results demonstrate its effectiveness in enabling reliable uncertainty propagation and improving interpretability in medical AI systems.

Quantifying and propagating modeling uncertainties is crucial for reliability analysis, robust optimization, and other model-based algorithmic processes in engineering design and control. Now, physics-informed machine learning (PIML) methods have emerged in recent years as a new alternative to traditional computational modeling and surrogate modeling methods, offering a balance between computing efficiency, modeling accuracy, and interpretability. However, their ability to predict and propagate modeling uncertainties remains mostly unexplored. In this paper, a promising class of auto-differentiable hybrid PIML architectures that combine partial physics and neural networks or ANNs (for input transformation or adaptive parameter estimation) is integrated with Bayesian Neural networks (replacing the ANNs); this is done with the goal to explore whether BNNs can successfully provision uncertainty propagation capabilities in the PIML architectures as well, further supported by the auto-differentiability of these architectures. A two-stage training process is used to alleviate the challenges traditionally encountered in training probabilistic ML models. The resulting BNN-integrated PIML architecture is evaluated on an analytical benchmark problem and flight experiments data for a fixed-wing RC aircraft, with prediction performance observed to be slightly worse or at par with purely data-driven ML and original PIML models. Moreover, Monte Carlo sampling of probabilistic BNN weights was found to be most effective in propagating uncertainty in the BNN-integrated PIML architectures.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) are integrated into safety-critical applications involving sequential decision-making in the real world, it is essential to know when to trust LLM decisions. Existing LLM Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods are primarily designed for single-turn question-answering formats, resulting in multi-step decision-making scenarios, e.g., LLM agentic system, being underexplored. In this paper, we introduce a principled, information-theoretic framework that decomposes LLM sequential decision uncertainty into two parts: (i) internal uncertainty intrinsic to the current decision, which is focused on existing UQ methods, and (ii) extrinsic uncertainty, a Mutual-Information (MI) quantity describing how much uncertainty should be inherited from preceding decisions. We then propose UProp, an efficient and effective extrinsic uncertainty estimator that converts the direct estimation of MI to the estimation of Pointwise Mutual Information (PMI) over multiple Trajectory-Dependent Decision Processes (TDPs). UProp is evaluated over extensive multi-step decision-making benchmarks, e.g., AgentBench and HotpotQA, with state-of-the-art LLMs, e.g., GPT-4.1 and DeepSeek-V3. Experimental results demonstrate that UProp significantly outperforms existing single-turn UQ baselines equipped with thoughtful aggregation strategies. Moreover, we provide a comprehensive analysis of UProp, including sampling efficiency, potential applications, and intermediate uncertainty propagation, to demonstrate its effectiveness. Codes will be available at https://github.com/jinhaoduan/UProp.

Filtering-based probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), also known as ODE filters, have been established as efficient methods for quantifying numerical uncertainty in the solution of ODEs. In practical applications, however, the underlying dynamical system often contains uncertain parameters, requiring the propagation of this model uncertainty to the ODE solution. In this paper, we demonstrate that ODE filters, despite their probabilistic nature, do not automatically solve this uncertainty propagation problem. To address this limitation, we present a novel approach that combines ODE filters with numerical quadrature to properly marginalize over uncertain parameters, while accounting for both parameter uncertainty and numerical solver uncertainty. Experiments across multiple dynamical systems demonstrate that the resulting uncertainty estimates closely match reference solutions. Notably, we show how the numerical uncertainty from the ODE solver can help prevent overconfidence in the propagated uncertainty estimates, especially when using larger step sizes. Our results illustrate that probabilistic numerical methods can effectively quantify both numerical and parametric uncertainty in dynamical systems.

Large language models (LLMs) integrated into multistep agent systems enable complex decision-making processes across various applications. However, their outputs often lack reliability, making uncertainty estimation crucial. Existing uncertainty estimation methods primarily focus on final-step outputs, which fail to account for cumulative uncertainty over the multistep decision-making process and the dynamic interactions between agents and their environments. To address these limitations, we propose SAUP (Situation Awareness Uncertainty Propagation), a novel framework that propagates uncertainty through each step of an LLM-based agent's reasoning process. SAUP incorporates situational awareness by assigning situational weights to each step's uncertainty during the propagation. Our method, compatible with various one-step uncertainty estimation techniques, provides a comprehensive and accurate uncertainty measure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that SAUP significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, achieving up to 20% improvement in AUROC.

Many problems in navigation and tracking require increasingly accurate characterizations of the evolution of uncertainty in nonlinear systems. Nonlinear uncertainty propagation approaches based on Gaussian mixture density approximations offer distinct advantages over sampling based methods in their computational cost and continuous representation. State-of-the-art Gaussian mixture approaches are adaptive in that individual Gaussian mixands are selectively split into mixtures to yield better approximations of the true propagated distribution. Despite the importance of the splitting process to accuracy and computational efficiency, relatively little work has been devoted to mixand selection and splitting direction optimization. The first part of this work presents splitting methods that preserve the mean and covariance of the original distribution. Then, we present and compare a number of novel heuristics for selecting the splitting direction. The choice of splitting direction is informed by the initial uncertainty distribution, properties of the nonlinear function through which the original distribution is propagated, and a whitening based natural scaling method to avoid dependence of the splitting direction on the scaling of coordinates. We compare these novel heuristics to existing techniques in three distinct examples involving Cartesian to polar coordinate transformation, Keplerian orbital element propagation, and uncertainty propagation in the circular restricted three-body problem.